Nuclear proliferation is the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a country not already possessing such weapons. Proliferation is unstoppable because necessity can be the mother of invention; or is necessity the father of stealing. Pre-1945, the strength and security of a country depended on how many conventional weapons it possessed. Today, a stockpile of nuclear weapons seems to do the job. This however, can only lead to an inevitable arms race, and no security. Greater sophistication in today’s weapons only equals more chance for computer and human error. Before the end of WW2, as long as your neighboring country(s) was friendly, you would not have to worry about surprise attacks. Ever since the fall of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear warheads can be delivered by missile from anywhere in the world. The bomb that ended WW2, engineered the first step in a possible earth suicide.
“I ask you to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of countries large and small, stable or unstable, responsible and irresponsible, scattered throughout the world. There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real security, and no chance of effective disarmament0.” The NPT1 of 1968 received 130 signatories who agreed to forgo nuclear weapons programs in return to help with nuclear power. From this, the IAEA2 was conceived. It monitored compliance with the NPT, and was to keep energy facilities from being converted into bomb factories. Simply, it was a major international bureaucracy involving all the power countries in order to gain stability over the less powerful.
Powerful countries with HEU3, weapons plans, test plans, warheads, missiles, and anything else used in the construction and delivery of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons can easily sell them to any less powerful country in need. Iran bought 5 billion dollars worth of goods from Germany, 3 billion from Japan, and 1 billion from the U.S. Much of the equipment involved dual use items like machine tools and chemical manufacturing equipmant6. In 1979, South Africa detonated a device that was reported to be made from parts by the Space Research Corp. of Quebec.
France and China have sold test and development plans to the new nuclear club members many times4. Meaning that not only can the “buyers” develop nuclear weapons but also they do not even have to test them. A massive underground stockpile can develop. For example in the U.S., Mordechai Vanunu showed authorities pictures of the Dimona plant in Israel, and the Israeli bomb4. He estimated from the photos that there was possibly 200 fission bombs stored underground. His evidence was confirmed by UN scientists for at least 100 devices. He was later kidnapped and returned to Israel where he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for being a traitor. In 1985, South Africa hired British and American nuclear experts to work on their nuclear program4. After the fall of the Berlin Wall5, Russia lost power over its former republics. This left the republics in a state of disarray and frailty. Therefore, Ukraine told French Parliament that it was prepared to sell strategic SS-18 and SS-25 missiles to anyone who was willing to pay6. Beijing was also selling ballistic missiles and nuclear equipment to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; ranking China as the largest proliferators in the world6. Under worldwide embargos and sanctions because of its apartheid policies, and run by a white minority, North Korea still managed to develop six atomic bombs6. This all proves the basic statement made by GÖtz Neuneck. “Proliferation cannot be stopped.”
The big question that has been plaguing the nuclear nations is; who is responsible when an accident happens? Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, 27 000 nuclear warheads have been left in the hands of many different military units6. Any of which can be corrupt or corrupted at any time. The effort by Russia to retain a joint armed force, to take care of the dismantlement of the nuclear weapons, was abandoned. The guarding of the late Soviet Union’s stockpile could fall into the possession of terrorists very easily. In December of 1994, 2.7 kg of HEU3 was found in a car used by a Czech nuclear physicist8. He was said to be traveling with others and they all are former citizens of the Soviet Union. Bulgarian Special Forces Units also arrested eight former citizens with smuggling nuclear material and explosives9. There is a possible “nuclear mafia” in Bulgaria, exporting radioactive materials from Russia,5. The GFOCI22 indicated 707 illegal dealings with nuclear contraband, which mainly came from Russia and the Ukraine52. Ukraine even came close to cracking the Russian computer codes that prevent the retargeting and firing of their nuclear devices6.
Would a country in economic limbo possibly sell weapons to gain needed revenue? The U.S. offered to buy 8-13 billion dollars of HEU3 from Ukraine’s warheads, meaning that Ukraine would receive at least 2 billion dollars6. Israeli insecurity; “That’s my fear: no accountability. Who’s in Charge? What kind of nightmare scenarios do they have planned? 7” Ironically, Israel claims to have no weapons but they have a Foreign Minister Disarmament Division. With every added test and development, human and computer error rises. The U.S. has had many nuclear accidents in the past called Broken Arrows. The classification of a Broken Arrow included: possibility of detonation, loss, rupture of weapons, leakage, and theft. Between 1965 and 1977, 381 Broken Arrows took place. In 18 months, the missile alarming systems false alarmed 147 times. A navy warplane in December of 1965 fell off an aircraft carrier into 4 300 meters of water. An airborne command post was launched by mistake. In 1979, a rocket fuel explosion of a Titan 2 sent an atom bomb into an Arkansas farmer’s field. In 1980, a B-52 bomber crashed over North Carolina, dropping two 40 Megaton atom bombs. In the last decade, 250 kg of Uranium went missing from an Israeli Stockpile.
Where do we draw the line as to who can have nuclear weapons? Third world countries argue that not only the Big 534 should have nuclear weapons power. Every country has the right to gain military and political power just as the Big 5 did between 1945-196527. It comes down to whom do we trust? “We know the Israelis have nuclear weapons and we never did anything about it.”82 How can you trust that a country will not destroy you in order to heighten their power? As long as humans are in control, proliferation is impossible. “There are no secrets”37 to prevent anyone from development.
